Reading the Tea Leaves
The middle of March is a time of year when admission decision-making comes into focus at many levels—when the finest distinctions are made with regard to who gets in and how financial assistance will be administered. It is also a time of countless huddles involving enrollment strategists as they seek to refine their calculations of yield. In other words, “What is the right number of students to admit in order to secure the desired enrollments?”
For enrollment strategists (a.k.a. senior admission officers) predicting yield can seem like “booking” a horse race. It’s all about calculating the odds. In this realm, however, getting it right has real implications for any institution that is even marginally tuition driven.
Part science and part instinct, yield forecasts are largely influenced by an institutions’ enrollment experience over time. In fact, actual yield rates are remarkably constant—they fluctuate very little from year to year.
Therefore enrollment strategists are guided by their own histories. If, for example, one out of four admitted students have enrolled at a given institution in the past, it stands to reason that four students must be admitted to get one in the present.
Historically based yield models are wonderfully accurate and highly cherished by enrollment strategists. While they don’t determine, “who gets in,” they provide answers with regard to how many students should be admitted. Such models work very well as long as the schools’ enrollment climate remains constant. However, throw in an event that changes the institutional equilibrium—a national championship, a natural disaster or scandal of major proportions—and the certainty disappears from the yield models.
The current state of the national economy ranks as such an event and enrollment strategists are scrambling to understand how it will affect the yield for their respective institutions. In a thoughtful report in the New York Times this past weekend, Kate Zerniky (“Uncertain Colleges Worry about Who Will Accept Them”) revealed the plausible angst that is felt by those responsible for predicting enrollment yields at their institutions. Perhaps Jennifer Delahunty, Dean of Admission and Financial Aid at Kenyon College, summed it up best when she said, “Trying to hit those numbers is like trying to hit a hot tub when you’re sky-diving from 30,000 feet.”
So what is going on in those huddles and what can you expect as admission decisions are revealed in the coming weeks?
The uncertainty regarding college funding is affecting both families and institutions. Just as families are more inclined than usual to proceed cautiously with enrollment commitments, colleges and universities are trying to stretch their financial aid dollars as far as possible. As a result don’t be surprised to see:
- Colleges admitting more students than usual as a hedge against lower yields this spring.
- More students than usual will be placed on Wait Lists—again, as insurance against lower than anticipated enrollments through Regular Decision offers of admission.
- Active Wait Lists. Colleges have become adapt at managing Wait Lists to achieve high yields. That experience will be put to the test this spring.
- “Gapped” financial aid awards. In other words, students, especially those on the competitive “margin,” will be admitted and offered financial aid that falls short of meeting their respective needs.
- Aggressive merit scholarship offers to students who do not otherwise need financial aid.
- The enrollment process to linger well past the May 1 Candidates’ Reply Date as families continue to explore viable funding options and institutions continue to work their Wait Lists to reach enrollment goals.
The activity surrounding the final choice of a college this spring will be unprecedented in terms of its volatility and, frankly, the opportunities it will present to families that are patient and well-informed about the process.
The next two Web-Side Chats will provide further interpretation of this activity and give strategic advice to families as they sort through their enrollment options. The webcast dates are:
- March 25, 7:00PM (ET)—Admission Decision Letter Preview
- April 13, 7:00PM (ET)—Evaluating Financial Aid Offers
Families with seniors in the throes of making final decisions will find the time spent well worth their while. I look forward to receiving your questions, comments and concerns.
Note for families with younger students in the college planning process: Click here to download a pdf copy of one of my articles, “The Importance of Finding a Good College Fit in a Tough Economy,” from the latest edition of Central PA Magazine. In it I provide a framework for understanding your college search in light of today’s economic climate including six steps to help you manage your expectations and lead you to discover the best college fit for you.
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