STUDENT-CENTERED SOLUTIONS FOR COLLEGE PLANNING

After months of waiting, hundreds of thousands of high school seniors are about to hear from the colleges to which they applied. While news has been leaking out from some schools over the last several weeks, the floodgates will open momentarily and educational futures will be revealed. Or will they?

If history is any indication, most students (about 80%) will be accepted to the colleges of their choice. On the surface, that’s great news. This year, however, students opening the “thick” envelopes need to read the fine print of their acceptance letters and financial aid awards to make sure they are receiving the financial support necessary to manage college costs at the schools of interest. And students who have been offered places on Wait Lists—or offered enrollment during the second semester (January admission)—need to understand the reality of those offers.

One thing is for sure. The admission decisions of 2009 promise to be more confounding than ever to the students who receive them. The lack of clarity will be maddening if you are a student with more questions than answers, yet eager to declare your enrollment intentions.

If you are a high school senior, you need to be thoughtful and deliberate in sorting through your options. Consult your college counselor for updates and interpretations regarding activity and trends on the part of colleges and be sure to work closely with your parents in weighing all of your options. And, if you are confused about how to:

• Respond to an adverse admission decision,
• Compare financial aid awards,
• Appeal a financial aid award,
• Maximize your chances for gaining admission from a Wait List, and/or
• Sort out a range of options that include offers of admission and placement on Wait Lists…

…You need to become a Best College Fit™ member for the next two Web-Side Chats webcasts! On March 25 (Admission Decision Letter Preview), we will sort out the various enrollment options that lie before you and on April 13 (Evaluating Financial Aid Options) we will attempt to make sense of the financial aid awards you have received.

Join us for 60 minutes and be prepared to ask the questions that will give you the confidence to make of clarity and insight that will help you define a game plan for making a sound educational investment.

All Web-Side Chats are recorded and available for review in Webcast Archives.P.S. A webcast is a live broadcast over the Internet (webcast) that uses streaming media technology accessed on your personal computer. During our Web-Side Chats webcasts, members can see and hear me “real-time” and ask questions or make comments via a chat box. We provide set-up instructions and support so even the most “technologically-challenged” find it easy to participate.

A few days ago, a friend asked my opinion about a dilemma that had come upon one of her advisees. A young man she had been advising had been accepted Early Decision to his first choice school, a highly selective institution in the Northeast. Upon receiving the acceptance letter, he withdrew the applications he had submitted to half a dozen other elite institutions in order to honor his Early Decision commitment. He was understandably elated because he had been admitted to the college of his dreams.

Weeks later, however, the elation turned to shock and dismay when he received a financial aid award based on an expected family contribution that was much greater than he had anticipated. Instead of the $10,000 he thought his family would need to pay out of pocket, he was told their contribution would be closer to $17,000. He was in a bind and didn’t know what to do. He couldn’t afford his ED school and he had withdrawn his applications to what had been his other options.

From what I could tell, the student had completed an online FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) forecaster prior to applying to any of the colleges. When the information he provided projected an Expected Family Contribution (EFC) of $10,000 for the first year, he and his parent were confident enough in their ability to come up with that amount that he had gone ahead with the ED application. Now, the school to which he was committed was expecting more—much more.

During the next two Web-Side Chats I will provide insight into how this situation and others like it might be averted and/or rectified. See below to learn how you can join the conversation.

Unfortunately, this is not likely to be an isolated incident in the coming weeks as colleges and universities stretch their diminished financial aid budgets to accommodate the students whom they have accepted. In some instances, institutions will use the “need analysis” of the College Scholarship Service Profile to justify EFC’s that can range anywhere from $5,000-$10,000 greater than is projected by the FAFSA. By doing so, they can claim to meet the demonstrated needs of their admitted students without ever having to reconcile the differential in the respective need analyses to the families involved.

In other cases, colleges will simply elect not to meet the full need of the admitted student. Instead, they will provide a basic financial aid award that covers a fraction of the demonstrated need and fill the ”gap” of unmet need with additional loans for the student and/or the parents. However it is manifest, expect this type of gapping to be prevalent in the days to come.

As you weigh your educational options in the coming weeks, it is important that you understand the terms of the enrollment agreements you are considering. Sometimes in the euphoria associated with “getting in” it is easy to overlook the details and, in the case of managing college costs, the “devil may indeed be in the detail.”

The good news is that, even in these days of deep recession, there are good deals to be found. To find them, though, you need to manage expectations and focus on finding the best “fit.” The next two Web-Side Chats (interactive webcasts) will help you interpret your options and give you the confidence you need to make the best possible choice among your college options.

On Wednesday, March 25, the topic is “Admission Decision Letter Preview.” We will take a look at the range of admission decisions that are likely to come your way. The April 13 webcast, “Evaluating Financial Aid Options,” lends insight into the various financial aid awards you may have received and helps you make “apples to apples” comparisons. Both hour-long webcasts begin at 7PM ET and are interactive so audience members can submit questions throughout. (All webcasts are archived for member access.)

The middle of March is a time of year when admission decision-making comes into focus at many levels—when the finest distinctions are made with regard to who gets in and how financial assistance will be administered. It is also a time of countless huddles involving enrollment strategists as they seek to refine their calculations of yield. In other words, “What is the right number of students to admit in order to secure the desired enrollments?”

For enrollment strategists (a.k.a. senior admission officers) predicting yield can seem like “booking” a horse race. It’s all about calculating the odds. In this realm, however, getting it right has real implications for any institution that is even marginally tuition driven.

Part science and part instinct, yield forecasts are largely influenced by an institutions’ enrollment experience over time. In fact, actual yield rates are remarkably constant—they fluctuate very little from year to year.

Therefore enrollment strategists are guided by their own histories. If, for example, one out of four admitted students have enrolled at a given institution in the past, it stands to reason that four students must be admitted to get one in the present.

Historically based yield models are wonderfully accurate and highly cherished by enrollment strategists. While they don’t determine, “who gets in,” they provide answers with regard to how many students should be admitted. Such models work very well as long as the schools’ enrollment climate remains constant. However, throw in an event that changes the institutional equilibrium—a national championship, a natural disaster or scandal of major proportions—and the certainty disappears from the yield models.

The current state of the national economy ranks as such an event and enrollment strategists are scrambling to understand how it will affect the yield for their respective institutions. In a thoughtful report in the New York Times this past weekend, Kate Zerniky (“Uncertain Colleges Worry about Who Will Accept Them”) revealed the plausible angst that is felt by those responsible for predicting enrollment yields at their institutions. Perhaps Jennifer Delahunty, Dean of Admission and Financial Aid at Kenyon College, summed it up best when she said, “Trying to hit those numbers is like trying to hit a hot tub when you’re sky-diving from 30,000 feet.”

So what is going on in those huddles and what can you expect as admission decisions are revealed in the coming weeks?

The uncertainty regarding college funding is affecting both families and institutions. Just as families are more inclined than usual to proceed cautiously with enrollment commitments, colleges and universities are trying to stretch their financial aid dollars as far as possible. As a result don’t be surprised to see:

• Colleges admitting more students than usual as a hedge against lower yields this spring.
• More students than usual will be placed on Wait Lists—again, as insurance against lower than anticipated enrollments through Regular Decision offers of admission.
• Active Wait Lists. Colleges have become adapt at managing Wait Lists to achieve high yields. That experience will be put to the test this spring.
• “Gapped” financial aid awards. In other words, students, especially those on the competitive “margin,” will be admitted and offered financial aid that falls short of meeting their respective needs.
• Aggressive merit scholarship offers to students who do not otherwise need financial aid.
• The enrollment process to linger well past the May 1 Candidates’ Reply Date as families continue to explore viable funding options and institutions continue to work their Wait Lists to reach enrollment goals.

The activity surrounding the final choice of a college this spring will be unprecedented in terms of its volatility and, frankly, the opportunities it will present to families that are patient and well-informed about the process.

The next two Web-Side Chats will provide further interpretation of this activity and give strategic advice to families as they sort through their enrollment options. The webcast dates are:

• March 25, 7:00PM (ET)—Admission Decision Letter Preview
• April 13, 7:00PM (ET)—Evaluating Financial Aid Offers

Families with seniors in the throes of making final decisions will find the time spent well worth their while. I look forward to receiving your questions, comments and concerns.

Note for families with younger students in the college planning process: Click here to download a pdf copy of one of my articles, “The Importance of Finding a Good College Fit in a Tough Economy,” from the latest edition of Central PA Magazine. In it I provide a framework for understanding your college search in light of today’s economic climate including six steps to help you manage your expectations and lead you to discover the best college fit for you.